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The website Whatifsports has played 
By jiujie on Mar 04, 2014 06:09 AM
<P>a Green Bay Packers Blog</P>
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<P>The website Whatifsports has played out the entire NFL season, Monte Carlo style, and has established the Green Bay Packers as the favorites to win the Super Bowl over the San Diego Chargers.</P>
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<P>Before David Clarkson Youth Jersey you go online to check the price of February flights to Dallas, last season Whatifsports had New England playing Philly in the Super Bowl, and they had the Packers going 7 9 and missing the playoffs.</P>
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<P>I'm not picking on them. I'm just saying the NFL is very hard to predict, especially given its one off playoff system and its homefield advantages. In fact, WhatifSports 71% accuracy mark is what I believe to be the best anyone can do without getting lucky.</P>
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<P>If you accept the premise, the worst record the Packers can have this season is 9 7, because they have the Packers winning 13 games and losing 3 (13 .70 = 9.1).</P>
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<P>I just went through WhatIfSports predictions from last season and they missed on average by 1.4 games. The most common miss was 2 games. They missed by 3 or more games only 4 times.</P>
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<P>Thus, my prediction of 11 wins looks good. Now, as for the Super Bowl, well that takes a lot of luck.</P>
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<P>Just messing around, I calculated the 2009home/away adjusted point David Clarkson Jersey differential for thePackers 2010 schedule to try to guagethis season schedule strength.</P>
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<P>Adjusted as mentioned above, the Packers opponents combined point differential would have been 20.6 points, which, if you figure that 43 points is worth one win above average, then the schedule strength is 0.5 wins above average.</P>
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<P>Meaning, if the Packers played average football against this schedule, their record would be 8.5 wins and 7.5 losses. So its a schedule of slightly below average strength.</P>
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<P>If the Packers play to last season level, then they should once again win 11.2 games. I suspect its that way throughout the NFL, given the League parity.</P>
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<P>Last season there was a growing Nazem Kadri Kids Jersey sentiment among Packer Backers that Packers K Mason Crosby needed tobe replaced, or at least scared with a little exhibition known as a tryout It seems he had missed one too many field goals.</P>
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<P>Crosby detractors could cite toCrosby low 75.0% field goal accuracy as prime evidence that he was substandard. Indeed, that accuracy mark helped rank the Packers in the bottom half of the NFL in terms of FG accuracy. The NFL average FG accuracy is around 85%, so Crosby was, in general terms, about Nazem Kadri Jersey 10% below average.</P>
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<P>But you cannot simply cite to blanket accuracy statistics when referring to field goals. And more disturbingly, his distance adjusted accuracy appears to be in freefall. Thatmeans he was a distance adjusted 6.6% below average. That is slightly better than the raw numbers, but it continues a disturbing pattern.</P>
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<P>Crosby appears to be losing more and moreaccuracy each season. For his careernow Crosby is a distance adjusted 2.0% below average.</P>
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<P>If we take a look at Crosby performance from the specific distances, it is clearCrosby gets comparatively worse as he moves outward (remember, this is compared to the average NFL kicker, so an outward decline is not normal). Crosby is +3% above average on kicks that are 29 yards and in; Crosby is 1.2%below average on kicks that are between 30 and 39 yards;Crosby is 6.3% on kicks thatare between 40 and 49 yards, and; Crosby is 6.6% on kicks that are taken from50 yards and beyond.</P>
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<P>How did weatheraffect his kicking? Clearly, he not kicking in a dome. But then again, Mike McCarthywill normally factor in conditions when asking Crosby to attempt a field goal.</P>
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<P>Overall in 2009,the Packers game conditions last seasonaveraged 48.4 degreesFahrenheit with an average wind speed of 6.9 mph. So he wasn asked to kickin the worst of conditions.</P>
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<P>The bottom line is Crosby needs to turn things around. But he has shown he is capable of being an above average kicker. The question is, can he turn things around and get back to being the above average kicker he showed he could be as a rookie?</P>
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<P>Using data from Yahoo Sportsand the Football Outsiders, last night I calculated the Value for each of the Packers downfield receivers in 2009 (I consider screen passes the equivalent of hand offs. I will get into that reasoning later.). You be a little surprised by the results I got. But first the methodology.</P>
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<P>What I wanted to determine isthe number ofextra yards each of the Packers downfield receivers produce compared to the number of times they are targeted by Aaron Rodgers. This I refer to below as the receiver value get to that number, I firstdetermined each downfield receiver yards after catch andyards per catch. The yards after catch, I reason, arethe receiver yards. The other yards belong to Aaron Rodgers.</P>
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<P>Then I determined the number of times the receiverswere or thrown at, and the number of receptions they made, or their rate I calculated how often the average quarterback is on target. It turns out that for Aaron Rodgers, the on target percentage is somewhere around 70% for downfield passes. Thus, any rate lower than 70% reduces the receivers total yards produced bythe average number of yards downfield Aaron Rodgers pass. (basically it represents the receivers dropped passes)</P>
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<P>So for the final Value you have the receivers yards produced after the catch minus yards cost per dropped pass divided by the number of times Rodgers threw at him. (I also adjusted by position foreach receiver point or the average point at whichhe was hit with thepass, and credited that to the receiver. That difference, I felt, needed to be reflected.)</P>
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<P>With that, here are the Values for each of the Packers downfieldreceivers.</P>
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<P>1. Spencer Havner, 3rd TE Havner, the third string tight end, was only targeted 10 times by Aaron Rodgers, but his production was incredible. His success rate was nearly 100%, his point was as far downfield as Jermichael Finley and his 7.1 yards produced after the catch were better than any of the Packers other downfield receivers. Now, perhaps he was a gimmick that team did not expect and therefore was left wide open. We shall see.</P>
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<P>2. Jermichael Finley, 1st TE Jermichael can stretch the field. What a weapon. He catches everything at wide receiver points and then advances down the field. His success rate was remarkable, and hisyards after catch were the highest on the team for any target receiver. No wonder he garnering such attention.</P>
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